New Delhi: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has maintained its growth forecast for India at 6.5% for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, as stated in its World Economic Outlook report. The IMF mentioned that "growth in India is expected to remain solid at 6.5% in 2025 and 2026, in line with previous projections made in October and consistent with the country's potential."

The global body also observed a slowdown in GDP growth, noting that "India's growth has decelerated more than anticipated, primarily due to a sharper-than-expected decline in industrial activity."

India's economic growth slowed to 5.4% in the second quarter of the current fiscal year, down from 6.7% in the same period last year. In fiscal year 2024, the GDP growth rate was 8.4%, though the country continues to hold the title of "world's fastest-growing economy."

The Finance Ministry's November economic review highlighted emerging uncertainties in global trade for fiscal year 2026. Despite global challenges, the report offers a cautiously optimistic outlook for India, projecting stronger growth in the second half of FY25 compared to the first half. The review noted that, after a moderation in Q2 of FY25, the outlook for Q3 appears promising, as reflected in the performance of HFIs in October and November 2024. It also pointed out that the strong US dollar and potential policy rate adjustments in the United States are putting pressure on emerging market currencies.

On the global front, the IMF has forecasted global growth at 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026, which is below the historical average of 3.7% (2000-19). The forecast for 2025 remains largely unchanged from the October 2024 World Economic Outlook, with revisions in the United States offsetting downward adjustments in other major economies.